Frederick Smith FedEx CEO – “we look at Amazon as a wonderful company”
EventHorizon1984
20 December 2018
“Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.”
Edmund Burke (1729-1797)
The knowledgeable people at FedEx had this interesting exchange, at their November FedEx Corp Earnings Call.
- FedEx Corp (FDX) Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call Transcript
Motley Fool Transcribers, 18 December 2018
“Have you seen any impact from Amazon Air?”
Ken Hoexter of Merrill Lynch
“Again, the short answer to that question is no.”
Rajesh Subramaniam, FedEx Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing and Communications Officer
“From me a short and long-term perspective, what is FedEx’s strategy to counter competition from Amazon?
David Campbell of Thompson Davis
“I’m not really sure how to answer this question. I mean, we look at Amazon as a wonderful company and service and they’re a good customer of ours. We don’t see them as a peer competitor at this point in time. For many reasons, we think it is doubtful that will be the case. … I think the prospects of this company is going to be well disrupted, which just occurs over and over again to quote a previous statement is fantastical. So, I’ll leave it at that.”
Frederick Smith, FedEx Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
“What does FedEx have regarding the recent expansion of Amazon Air at Northern Kentucky, Rockford International and Alliance Airports?”
Dan Ronan of Transport Topics
“Well, Dan, as we’ve talked about before, we don’t have any concerns. And so far, as you can see, our volumes in the domestic networks are continuing to increase and we value Amazon as a good customer of ours. Thank you.”
Rajesh Subramaniam, FedEx Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing and Communications Officer
“I think it’s also important to recognize and, again, there is a significant misunderstanding, the Amazon Air network is set up to move inventory within the Amazon system, which is prodigious, it’s big. It moves not-in-stock and low turn SKUs and forward stocked items for their third-party customers, who can’t duplicate inventory. So it’s scheduled differently”
Frederick Smith, FedEx Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Have we heard those words, “We don’t see them as a peer competitor at this point in time. For many reasons, we think it is doubtful that will be the case,” before?
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santayana (1863-1952)
Anyone remember eBay INC? Let’s go back nineteen years, to 1999.
“Amazon’s a very competitive company, and I think they are a very good competitor, and we take them very, very seriously. I think the proof will be in the pudding. You know, we are still looking for signs of momentum, and so far, they have not gotten traction.”
Margaret “Meg” Whitman, 30 May 1999
That was a fascinating bit of hubris, given the mood of the stock market.
- Stock Price 28 May 1999
eBay INC stock split 3 for 1 on 2 March 1999.
Maybe not the complete ‘mood’ of Wall Street.
“Meg Whitman, CEO of pioneering online auctioneer eBay Inc. (EBAY), remains the czarina of Net auctions–and that’s saying a lot. Three tough competitors, Amazon.com (AMZN), Yahoo! (YHOO), and Lycos (LCOS) tried to knock eBay from its perch. It didn’t happen.”
Jim Kerstetter, Businessweek, 15 May 2000
Well. There are mood swings. And then there’s mood whiplash.
This is the state of e-commerce, 2018.
- 48.0% – Amazon
- 7.2% – eBay
- 4.0% – Walmart
- 3.9% – Apple
This is U.S. retail, 2017. Amounts in billions.
- $374.80 – Walmart
- $115.89 – The Kroger Co.
- $102.96 – Amazon
- $93.08 – Costco
After over two decades, eBay INC is not much of a retailer.
This is the Bear Market of today.
- $1,458.37 – Amazon
- $28.02 ($1,597.81) – eBay
eBay INC stock has split five times.
- 1999 – 3 for 1 split
- 2000 – 2 for 1 split
- 2003 – 2 for 1 split
- 2005 – 2 for 1 split
- 2015 – 2376 for 1000 split
Leaving $1,597.81 as the ‘not split’ equivalent.
At least eBay’s share price, on paper, caught up to Amazon’s. Which may be small consolation to the corporation. As Walmart and Apple seek to claim the crown of ‘we’re number 2’ from eBay.
Meanwhile, will the juggernaut FedEx steamroll Amazon?
Couriers and local delivery service providers’ global market share in 2017
United States market share 2018
- 35.85% – UPS
- 35.6% – USPS
- 16.93% – FedEx
- 10.87% – DHL
Let us know in eighteen years.
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“I’ve got news for Mr. Santayana: we’re doomed to repeat the past no matter what. That’s what it is to be alive.”
Kurt Vonnegut (1922-2007)
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Event Horizon Log 
Influenza Mortality versus COVID-19 Mortality
Published 12 April 2020 Business , Commentary , Health and Medical , History , Science Leave a CommentTags: CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, coronavirus, COVID-19, influenza, National Center for Health Statistics, NCHS
Influenza Mortality versus COVID-19 Mortality
EventHorizon1984
12 April 2020
“the 36,000 figure is a) an estimate, b) an average, and c) that these are “influenza-associated” deaths”
Beth P. Bell MD, MPH, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2008
You’ve probably run across this type of daily coronavirus post from a non-American:
It’s an ‘apples and oranges‘ type of argument. There is a flu vaccine. There are multiple medical treatments, such as Tamiflu, for the influenza. While there is no COVID-19 vaccine nor fully tested Tamiflu drug equivalent.
Yet the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) does present the following:
Yet the CDC did say the number was an “estimate.”
“Estimation: The fine art of guessing”
Jonathan Rasmusson
The CDC did have a methodology that produced the high end “62,000” mortality number.
The “61,777” pneumonia deaths are what the CDC described as “influenza associated deaths.”
The CDC policy:
To put some of these numbers into perspective:
These flu death statistics are from test results (“positively identified”). And not an “estimate.”
To do an apples to apples comparison, you need to compare the positively identified deaths from influenza to positively identified deaths from COVID-19. Not add “associated” non-tested results.
Can that 2020 influenza number be obtained?
Yes, from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On the CDC site.
“One civilian dead for every ten terrorists. That’s an acceptable ratio.” Fletcher
“Unless you’re one of the civilians” Frank Murphy
Blue Thunder (1983)
Week one of 2020, 416 influenza deaths.
Week:
Week thirteen (ending March 28 2020) – 300 influenza deaths.
Total 2020 influenza deaths, 6076.
And 2019? From the start of the flu season; 1 October 2019, week 1.
2019 influenza deaths, 829. Total influenza deaths for the 2019-2020 flu season so far, 6095.
The CDC characterizes ‘flu season’ as “influenza activity often begins to increase in October. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, although activity can last as late as May.”
With two more months of flu season to go, it is unlikely the death toll for influenza will be anywhere near 62,000. Or even 24,000.
And what of COVID-19?
CDC, Washington State Report First COVID-19 Death
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Let’s do a mortality comparison.
COVID-19 Total Deaths United States
Influenza Total Deaths United States
Draw your own conclusions.
But do it from home.
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“the thing what worries most of us in the field of public health is a respiratory illness that can spread even before someone is so sick that you want to keep them in bed.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, 2019
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